Department of Health
John J. Dreyzehner, MD, MPH, Commissioner

The Tennessee Population Projection and Estimate series are based upon 2000 U. S. Census data as the baseline along with Tennessee estimates for birth and death rate assumption surrounding the year 2000 time frame and birth, death, and migration trends forecasted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census at that time. As time progresses into the 2000-2010 time period, it is expected that some of the parameters initially used in the projection series may have deviated from the original assumptions with accompanying deviations in population counts. This is likely to occur at sub-state geographic and demographic levels where the population changes in small areas are more susceptible to local economic and demographic situations and conditions.

As the current time period moves into the latter half of the decade, the Division of Health Statistics has begun to monitor its projection and estimate series against more current intercensal estimates and projections for Tennessee and its counties provided by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

The Division of Health Statistics will begin making adjustments to its original series using the ratio method when the differences between the Division of Health Statistics original estimates and the U.S. Bureau of the Census current intercensal estimates become significant enough to begin to noticeably distort any statistical calculation utilizing population estimate data.

The March 2006 U.S. Bureau of the Census estimate for Tennessee for 2005 is 5,962,959 which is 0.1 of a percent higher than the original Tennessee estimate of 2005 of 5,958,085. The Bureau of the Census projection for Tennessee for 2010 is 6,230,852 which is also 0.1 of a percent higher than the original Tennessee projection for 2010 of 6,225,051. Thus it appears that for the State as a whole, the Tennessee Population and Estimate series is very consistent with the Bureau of the Census estimates and projections. However, as noted above, sub-state estimates and projections may be subject to